Lost Sheep wrote:I agree with your overall conclusion, (chances of sleeping with a woman who has slept with an implanted man before are slim) but question your calculations.
Any one wondering how to do the calculation might want to review this web discussion.
https://math.stackexchange.com/question ... -100-times
Of course, how I come to 1 in 37,000 and 1 in 247,000 in the two age groups is up for debate. If anybody really cares, I can let you know my assumptions.
But the conclusion won't be too far off I think.
If you are questioning that once we have a percentage of how many men are implanted, we can calculate how many men a woman needs to sleep with to encounter an implanted man, I don't see any room for questioning.
The binomial distribution lets us calculate the expected value once we have the percentage of independent events to happen.
And it tells us that when something is 1 in 4,633 to happen, the expected value of how many times we need to let that event happen to get one positive outcome, the answer is 4,633 times.
The classical example is rolling a die. If you roll a die as many times it takes to get the result "6" and note the result, and then repeat this 100 times. The average number of times you would need to roll your die to get a "6" would be 6. That's very basic theory of probability.
I was probably wrong to express it as 50% chance.
Let me instead say that if we had 1000 women who slept with new men over and over again till they finally found one who was implanted, the average number of men those 1000 women would have to sleep with to encounter an implanted man would be 4,633 if they slept with 30-50 year olds, and 685 if they slept with men 60-80 year old.